Ross: Does Oil Hinder Democracy?

Ross, M., 2001. Does Oil Hinder Democracy? World Politics, 53(3), 325-361.

As per the title of the article, Ross wonders whether or not reserves of natural resources, specifically oil, would act as an impediment to the democratic process. He explores this quantitatively. He asks three specific questions: is this phenomena real? How does this claim work along two axes: geographic and sectoral? And finally, what is the causal mechanism? For the last question, he tests three independent variables: the rentier effect, the repression effect and the modernization effect.


Ross tests this using the Regime variable from polity data as a dependent variable. The independent variables are both oil and mineral stores. Ross then controls for income, Islam, the OECD, the dependent variable lagged 5 years and incorporates a variety of dummy variables.

“These tests support both the validity and the generality of the oil-impedes-democracy claim. They suggest the following: that a state’s reliance on either oil or mineral exports tends to make it less democratic; that this effect Is not caused by other types of primary exports; that this is not limited to the Arabian Peninsula, to the middle east, or to sub-Saharan Africa, and that it is not limited to small states. These findings are generally consistent with the theory of the rentier state” (346).

Ross then tests the hypothesis that the rentier state is the deeper driver of the oil-impedes democracy thesis.

There are four items that Ross claims to have found in this article: oil does impede democracy. This effect is not limited to the Middle East. Additionally, mineral gluts also have the effect of slowing democracy. Finally, Ross finds some support for each of the three possible causal drivers: rentier effects, repression and modernization.