Bennett and Stam: A Universal Test of an Expected Utility Theory of War

Bennett, DS, and AC Stam. 2000. “A Universal Test of an Expected Utility Theory of War.” International Studies Quarterly 44:451-480.

This account explores the expected utility theory of war, a rationalist approach to modeling the interaction of states that stems from the work of Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman. In War and Reason, these authors explore the International Interaction Game (IIG), but only on 707 dyads and only for Europe. These authos attempt to expand upon that approach.

“Rational choice applications to war initiation begin with the assumption that states can be modeled as rational actors who make choices about war and peace by assessing the costs and benefits of alternative actions” (452).

“The IIG posits a series of interactive decision paths that lead to a set of eight different possible outcomes for any dyadic relationship at any given moment. Given adequate data, a prediction can be made of the expected outcome in equilibrium from any given interstate dyadic interaction” (452). It is assumed that this model “holds up” against space and time.

“Overall, our results support the prior findings of Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman that the game-theoretic predictions of the IIG and the empirical measures developed to test them successfully predict behavior” (477).

Chadwick: Global Modeling

Chadwick, R. W. (2000). Global modeling: Origins, assessment, and alternative futures (Vol. 31, 50).

This article attempts to place global models within a historical context, identify some important terminology used by these models and explore modeling philosophy.

The historical context of global modeling is traced back to Richardson’s models of war. Richardson created a formula for identifying the structural probabilities of war’s outbreak. This was accomplished at the turn of the 20th century. Further models are developed and highlighted in this article.

The philosophical conditions of global modeling are then addressed. Chadwick wonders to what degree models are deterministic. He also explores whether global models are attempts to most accurately forecast the future, or whether they are more designed as policy tools. This ties into his next philosophical inquiry: whether or not the models attempt to forecast reality or ideals. Later, he wonders to what degree there is a disconnect between academia and government.