Mansfield and Snyder: Democratization and the Danger of War

Mansfield, E. & Snyder, J., 1995. Democratization and the Danger of War. International Security, 20, 5-38.

It is generally held that democracies do not go to war with one another. It is such a cornerstone of common sense that the concepts finds itself embedded in foreign policy decisions and explanation. While it is more than likely true that a world of stable and mature democracies is generally more peaceful for all, these authors contend, it is not the case that simply a democratic regime necessitates stability. The authors argue that democratic transitions are actually quite dangerous periods of instability. “In this transitional phase of democratization, countries become more aggressive and war-prone, not less, and they do fight wars with democratic states” (5).

Transitioning democracies are generally more likely to fight wars than either mature autocracies or mature democracies.

“Much of the research on the democratic peace has relied on statistical tests, which indicate that democracies become involved in wars about as frequently as other states, but that by reasonably restrictive definitions, they have never fought each other” (9).

These authors use the same database and argue that there is statistical significance that democratizing states do go to war. The distinction between democratic and democratizing states is crucial. “We consider states to be democratizing if, during a given period of time, they change from autocracy to either anocracy or democracy, or if they change from anocracy to democracy. Conversely, states are autocratizing if they change from democracy to autocracy or anocracy, or from anocracy to autocracy” (9). “We found that democratizing states were more likely to fight wars than were states that had undergone no regime change” (12).