Friedman: The First Law of Petropolitics

Friedman, T., 2006. The First Law of Petropolitics. Foreign Policy, 154, 28-36.

Thesis: The price of oil and freedom move in opposite directions.

Friedman had a hunch. He saw Arab countries who were more likely to run out of oil increasing political freedoms (Bahrain). He also saw that the bellicoseness of other leaders increased as the price of oil increased. He wondered if this could be “graphed”. He assures us that this study is not scientific.

“The First Law of Petropolitics posits the following: The price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions in oil-rich petrolist states” (31). Friedman cites Ross.

“Let me stress again that I know that the correlations suggested by these graphs are not perfect and, no double, there are exceptions that readers will surely point out. But I do believe they will illustrate a general trend that one can see reflected in the news every day: The rising price of oil clearly has a negative impact on the pace of freedom in many countries, and when you get enough countries with enough negative impacts, you start to poison global politics” (36).