Hughes: Forecasting the HDI

Hughes, Barry. (2004). "Forecasting the Human Development Index". unpublished IFs working paper on the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures website: Denver, CO. http://www.ifs.du.edu/reports.htm.

This report presents a variety of forecasts using the IFs model regarding the HDI.

Initially, there is a discussion of the history of the HDI, which was developed by Haq and Sen in 1990. The measure looks at three aspects of human development: a logged $40,000 GDP per capita, life expectancy and literacy. The measure is from 0-1 with higher numbers representing greater levels of human development.

The forecast of HDI for OECD countries actually moves beyond the upper level of 1. There is general steady growth in this cohort. All other cohorts show steady growth in HDI except for sub-Saharan Africa. One of the important causal factors for this lack of growth is the prevalence of HIV/AIDS.

The author then deploys alternative scenarios for exploring possible alternative global scenarios. One is the failure to control for HIV/AIDS. Another is a sustainability scenario. These two scenarios are then compared with the base case vis-à-vis the HDI in sub-Saharan Africa. The results are summed up in Figure 11 with the failure to control for HIV/AIDS clearly halting HDI development early and the sustainability scenario clearly promoting this development.

This paper then goes on to explore the HDI with respect to its longevity as a metric. In later forecasts of IFs, some countries exceed the limits imposed by the HDI of $40,000 GDP per capita at purchasing power parity and 85 year life expectancy. The model gets around this by raising maximum GDP to $100,000.