Hughes: Forecasting Globalization

Hughes, Barry. (2004). "Forecasting Globalization: The Use of International Futures". unpublished IFs working paper on the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures website: Denver, CO. http://www.ifs.du.edu/reports.htm.

A standard measure of globazliation includes four metrics: political engagement, technological connectivity, personal contact and economic integration. The Globalization Index (GI) produced by A.T. Kearney and Foreign Policy is the gold standard at the moment. The IFs GLOBALIZ variable will be explored in relation to the GI. Can IFs forecast globalization? The answer provided here is both yes and no.

The structure of IFs allows for a forecast of globalization that takes into consideration the four variables outlined above. However, this representation does not fully take into consideration all of the effects of the positive and negative feedback loops. The positive feedback loops of globalization are reinforcing relationships between, for example, increased trade flows and increased country GDP. The negative feedback loops, for example, are how increased growth leads to increased carbon emissions. The IFs model does a good job with the positive feedback loops but does not fully complete the negative feedback loops. For example, while there is a negative feedback loop between carbon emissions and GDP growth, that loop is not completed with carbon emissions affecting something else.

The paper concludes that, while globalization is very difficult to forecast, the different GEO scenarios provide a robust set of scenarios to use as a basis for understanding the possible directions in that the global trend may go. Three of the four scenarios see an increase in levels of globalization with the Security First scenario being the outlier. Additionally, the forecasting of the negative feedback loops within IFs, or any model, is fraught with difficulties. Thirdly, the author wonders whether or not there could be a saturation point within the process of globalization.