Chadwick: Global Modeling

Chadwick, R. W. (2000). Global modeling: Origins, assessment, and alternative futures (Vol. 31, 50).

This article attempts to place global models within a historical context, identify some important terminology used by these models and explore modeling philosophy.

The historical context of global modeling is traced back to Richardson’s models of war. Richardson created a formula for identifying the structural probabilities of war’s outbreak. This was accomplished at the turn of the 20th century. Further models are developed and highlighted in this article.

The philosophical conditions of global modeling are then addressed. Chadwick wonders to what degree models are deterministic. He also explores whether global models are attempts to most accurately forecast the future, or whether they are more designed as policy tools. This ties into his next philosophical inquiry: whether or not the models attempt to forecast reality or ideals. Later, he wonders to what degree there is a disconnect between academia and government.