Rose: Do we really know that the WTO increases trade?

Rose, AK. 2004. Do we really know that the WTO increases trade? American Economic Review 94, no. 1: 98-114.

This paper explores whether a handful of global trade regimes actually has an impact on international trade flows. "An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns than outsiders. The GSP [Generalized System of Preferences] does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade" (from abstract).

"While theory, causal empiricism, and strong statements abound, there is, to my knowledge, no compelling empirical evidence showing that the GATT/WTO has actually encouraged trade" (1).

"To summarize, I have been unable to find evidence that membership in the GATT/WTO has a strong positive effect on international trade" (12).