Fildes, Robert, and V. Kumar. “Telecommunications demand forecasting--a review.” International Journal of Forecasting 18(4) (October): 489-522. doi:10.1016/S0169-2070(02)00064-X.
“This paper describes various models that have been used to understand market dynamics. Markets discussed include both established and new: mobile, the internet, and PSTN… Cross-sectional choice models of the mode of accessing the service are discussed along with models for usage in established markets. These models typically include price…differ4entials and use standard econometric methods, focusing on price elasticity estimation. Forecasting accuracy has been neglected. New product models may include additional ‘drivers’ such as aspects of service quality and the attributes of the products themselves. Both choice models of adoption of new products and Bass-type diffusion models have been used in forecasting. Because of the complexity of the ‘drivers’ of the adoption process, the successful modeling of these markets has been limited, not least by inadequate data. Simulation models have been proposed to structure the problems more completely and overcome these inadequacies. Both these classes of model have not been effectively validated, researchers having been content to just propose a new approach without thoroughly testing it against alternatives” (Robert Fildes and V. Kumar, 1).
“The core concept at the heart of most models of telecommunications demand is simple—that expected usage determines access demand and these two in turn determine equipment requirements” (R Fildes and V Kumar 2002).
“In standard models of demand in the PSTN, modeling is though a two stage procedure where usage (quantity in minutes demanded or number of calls) is modeled as a function of price, income and other relevant variables conditional on access while access is modeled through a model of the individual choices made between alternatives. here the dependent variable is categorical and the logit framework, which we discuss later in this section, offers a suitable representation” (R Fildes and V Kumar 2002, 5).
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