Lee, James R. 2009. Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars. Routledge studies in peace and conflict resolution. London: Routledge.
There are two areas where conflict arising from climate change is likely: the Equatorial Tension Belt and the Polar Tension Belt. The ETB represents conflicts that will arise from the following causes: the age of the society and the overall environmental impact; the size of populations and the resource pressures implied; the kind of environment-desert or tropics-lend themselves to increased impact from climate change; historical legacy; and resource distribution (9-10). In the PTB, conflict will arise over the need to extract resources that become available due to receding ice stocks.
“Climate change will tend to make the existing Equatorial Tension Belt hotter and drier, and these twin conditions are likely to lead to greater conflict. Forecasts suggest that problems will intensify as demographic and socio-economic factors add further pressures on resources” (10).
The conceptualization of the relationship between climate change and conflict involves a framing of perspectives on the future: some are optimists, some are pessimists. These can be generally grouped into idealist and realist camps.
Some argue that climate change is not going to create substantial impetus for conflict. Others argue that conflict will emerge in certain zones, and not in others. These are referred to as “tame” zones and “untamed” zones (22).
The first tame zone is those that are interdependent because of trade. The second tame zone involve those who are democratic.
Chapter 2 reviews some historic instances of climate change and conflict.
Chapter 3 looks out at forecasts of climate change and conflict.
The beginning focuses on an overview of IPCC reports and findings.
Compares ACTOR forecasts for conflict with historic prevalence of conflict (from Uppsala) and then juxtaposes this with IPCC forecasts for low, intermediate and high temperature change. Again, forecasts of climate change are compared with Fund for Peace forecasts of state failure. IPCC regions are then each specifically explored.
Six scenarios are then deployed.
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