O'Brien: Anticipating the Good, the Bad adn the Ugly

Sean O'Brien, “Anticipating the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: An Early Warning Approach to Conflict and Instability Analysis,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 6 (2002): 791.

This article explores structural variables as a cause for internal conflict and instability. It uses a statistical model based on fuzzy logic to explore historic cases of instability. The results claim to be accurate for 80% of cases out 5 years.

There is a general review of the history of early-warning systems for instability, and a nice listing of citations. State failure is operationalized in the same way as it was in the SFTF: through genocide/policide; ethnic wars; revolutionary wars; and disruptive regime changes. There is also mention of the most basic SFTF model’s three independent variables: infant mortality, trade openness and democracy. King and Zeng’s (2001) model is highlighted as improving on the SFTF by adding legislative effectiveness and the fraction of the population in the military, as well as correcting other general methodological problems.

“This study seeks to extend this line of work in several ways. First, we are interested in forecasting the likelyhood of country instability or, more precisely, the conditions conducive to instability for every major country of the world over each of the next 15 years. To do so, we identify, evaluate, and ultimately forecast those macrostructural factors at the nation-state level that, when combined with events or triggers such as assassinations, riots, or national disasters, have historically…been associated with different kinds and levels of intensity of conflict” (4).

The study uses KOSIMO data for the dependent variable.

The model is created, the data is validated, the results explored, and limitations are acknowledged.